Anticipating Diplomatic Feuds: TNI Long-Term Modernisation Planification

The desire of the Indonesian Minister of Defense, Prabowo Subianto, to pursue a long-term modernisation planification for the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) makes sense. However, it must also consider the evolution and uncertainties of the security environment at the regional and global levels.

While the potential threat of imposed sanctions is difficult to anticipate, several strategies can be adopted by the government, including by strengthening the domestic defense industry leading to its independence through CTLCO programmes. Nonetheless, before sealing the deals, the Ministry of Defence needs to carefully assess its suppliers or OEMs, such as by considering their track records, in order to reduce the risk of being sanctioned. Thus, how should the long-term strategy planning for the modernisation of the TNI be considered?