Our Thoughts

The Russian and Indonesian navies began their first-ever joint naval exercise on Monday, November 4. This cooperation aligns with the new Indonesian President’s aim to promote a non-aligned foreign policy.

While NATO and the United States (US) repeatedly warn that the presence of North Korean troops alongside Russian forces poses a grave threat that risks extending the conflict to Asia, Jakarta is seeking rapprochement with Moscow. By hosting five days of exercises in its waters featuring three corvettes, a military helicopter, and a Russian tugboat, Prabowo Subianto, a former Minister of Defence and the new Indonesian President, is asserting his non-aligned stance or what he calls a ‘good neighbour’ policy.

“I interpret this as a political decision, demonstrating that Indonesia is willing to open its doors to cooperation with all countries,” says Pieter Pandie, a researcher at the Centre of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). This longstanding policy of the archipelago appears to be taking shape under President Subianto through a clear rapprochement with Moscow.

Historic Exercises

As early as July, he met with Vladimir Putin in the Russian capital, announcing these exercises. While ASEAN has previously taken part in military exercises with Russia, this marks the first bilateral military cooperation between the two countries. It serves as a reaffirmation of Jakarta’s diplomatic strategy, which has historically leaned more towards Western partners in defence matters. “The Indonesian Foreign Minister’s first trip was to Kazan, Russia, for the BRICS summit. This aligns with the pragmatic approach of Indonesia and its president,” notes Alban Sciascia, the Director of security and political risk consulting firm PT Semar Sentinel Indonesia in Jakarta. “The important question is: what does Indonesia gain from its relationship with other countries? When it comes to Russia, discussions have covered various areas of cooperation, particularly in the energy sector.”

However, the operational value of these naval exercises is difficult to assess, according to Pieter Pandie. “The maritime interests of these two countries are extremely different. Russia is engaged in a broader geopolitical game with diverse military and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, Indonesia focuses on transnational issues such as illegal fishing,” the researcher points out. To note, Indonesia does operate Russian military equipment and will likely benefit from the Kremlin’s military expertise, particularly in maintenance. 

Prabowo Subianto’s Cautious Strategy

How far will the Indonesian president go in balancing relations between Russia and the US? This is a valid question, though the new head of state appears to be pursuing a relatively cautious strategy for now. For instance, he has not moved forward with a potential US$1.1 billion deal signed with Moscow in 2018 for the purchase of Russian fighter jets. “The budget that could have been allocated was not allocated to this expenditure,” explains Alban Sciascia. “There is no indication that this project will proceed or that Indonesia will acquire these aircraft.” If the country were to change its stance, it could risk facing US sanctions—similar to those imposed on Türkiye in 2020 for purchasing Russian S-400 missiles.

Such a scenario would be difficult for Indonesia to accept, as the US remains its primary military partner. “Indonesia’s defence ecosystem is much more oriented towards the West than China or Russia,” says Pieter Pandie. “For example, the large-scale exercise involving the US, Super Garuda Shield, are far more institutionalised and involve multiple branches of the military (army, air force, and navy), unlike the exercise with Russia.”

Jakarta appears to be sending a message to the world rather than making a strategic pivot. It remains to be seen whether its ambiguous stance on the war in Ukraine will change. So far, Indonesia has supported United Nations (UN) measures against Russia and defended Ukraine’s territorial integrity. However, Indonesia continues to advocate for swift dialogue between the aggressor and the victim, effectively placing both on equal footing.

rfi   |   Nicolas Rocca